Home > economy, Italian scandals, media, politics > The secret “plan B” of “mr B”: “At the vote without wait a minute more, if the Supreme Court still condemns me”

The secret “plan B” of “mr B”: “At the vote without wait a minute more, if the Supreme Court still condemns me”

ROME“If the Supreme Court will confirm the sentence for the process Mediaset, it will not be this Parliament to protect myself.” This that follow here is the secret “plan B” of mr. Berlusconi against the next decisions of the Court. 

For him is a “war.” A conflict with no holds barred against the Public Mininsters and (for him) politicized judges. But for Silvio Berlusconi, at this time, the first battle would be really decisive. The one from which you will never go back. In fact, the Supreme Court will decide within the next few months on the case Mediaset (surely June 1, 2014, when for it will start a prescription.)

In the PDL, the politic party of mr. Berlusconi, now is the time to decide how to move in the case of a confirmation of the judgment of the court of Milan by the Supreme Court in the process Mediaset. An idea that goes between a new vote and a conflict between state powers.

And all other questions in Italy will remain still without answers. The problems of mr. Berlusconi remain under the carpet for most foreigner observers. The problems  with the justice of the mr. B (and those of his empire) will block the next future of this wonderful country. The Supreme Court will have to rule on the confirmation or otherwise of the sentence to four years in prison and the interdiction of all public affairs. With the consequent loss (potential) of his parliamentary mandate. That is, the farewell to the Senate and the active policy for ever. 

A hypothesis with which Berlusconi and the entire staff of the “PDL” have already started to do the math. By developing the possible counter-moves. Or rather, the “possible countermove.” And now, because of all of this, at the “fort Arcore” now you do not talk about anything else. Putting into account the more radical options. Including the government crisis. To cause not now, but when, and especially if the “messengers” of the former prime minister will have gained the conviction that the Supreme Court does not offer “positive chances.”

The “Plan B” Berlusconi is thus ready. It rests on three pillars: maintaining the current electoral law – the porcellum – the use of early elections and the jurisdictional dispute before the Constitutional Court. “It is clear – the head of the center-right has saying – as I said in pubblic at Brescia,” I am here and I’ll be there. “If I had my way, the government Letta could last all the legislature, but if the Supreme Court … “.

INVESTIGATION: The processes of the “Cavalier Berlusconi”

The former chairman of the board considers it a last resort, but has developed his “design” in almost all its aspects and passages. The point of reference is the parliamentary regulations in force in the Senate and the House. Why? Just read the article 66 of the Constitution: “Each House decides the qualifications for admission of its members and the causes of ineligibility and incompatibility.”

In other words, this means that if the Supreme Court confirmed the five-year ban from holding public office, anyay at every parliamentary branch determine whether they belong to the elect to be considered “fallen”. Would therefore be up to the “Board of Elections and Immunity” start the “Procedure for disputing the election,” so called. A sort of real “process” that in the case of former Prime Minister would provide a rapporteur of the Molise Region, his constituency. The opinion of the council should then receive the final and binding on the green classroom. But the current political relations in the Executive and the Assembly does not provide any guarantee to the PDL: the Democratic Party with the M5S and Sel have a majority to authorize the “decadence” of mr. Berlusconi.

And this is the numeric data that now is causing for the former prime minister to take up the ‘”ultimate weapon” to provoke precisely the crisis of government behind the judgment of the Supreme Court then ask for early elections by standing no longer in the Senate but in the low House. With the electoral system that survive in Italy, in fact, if the center-right were to prevail in the House by just one vote, he would have – thanks to the crazy prize that survive here- an absolute majority in the classroom and in the Executive. At that point it would be well granted the vote against the authorization to apply the penalty of disqualification. Moreover, not only for the italian Constitution but also all previous cases out, all confirm the need for a step into the classroom before giving effective interdiction. The two most explicit cases are those of Mario Ottieri, a deputy monarchy in 1967 – following a conviction for bankruptcy fraud – declined from office after the formal vote of the assembly. And the same thing happened in ’77 with Mario Tanassi (the jolt came for the Lockheed scandal). More recently, Cesare Previti, Totò Cuffaro and finally Giuseppe Drago in 2010. All parlamentary that have resigned voluntarily before it was formalized judgment of the assembly.

But, as verified by the “legal experts” of Berlusconi, there is no precedent in which it was denied the forfeiture of the parliamentary mandate. If this hypothesis were to occur, the clash between state powers would be sensational: the legislature against the judiciary. A conflict that would fibrillar institutions. According to studies the most reliable, in fact, and according to the simulations that have been delivered on the desk of the president of the PDL, this would give rise to a jurisdictional dispute over which should be referred to the Constitutional Court. It would be the judge of execution – basically the magistrates of Milan – to raise the conflict by challenging the distorted interpretation of Article 66 of the Constitution. But in that case the “dispute” between state powers would cause a real havoc. Also because the Knight would make use politically of the results of the last election. “How could any judge – it is the provocative question – give reason to Public Ministers (judges that rapresent the State) in such a conflict and reject the popular consensus that the polls already give me?”.

Not only that. The “technical” of the PDL would have pointed out that the choice to plunge the country in the early voting has to happen before the Supreme Court can have the time to express itself: if convicted fact, even if Berlusconi did not immediately decayed, could not run again because of the requirements needed is the political rights that miss in the presence of disqualification from public office. Unless you exploit that particular “limbo” that separates the verdict from its publication, at which time it is actually operating it.

And besides that Berlusconi is particularly the (still again) issue, it clearly shows the insistence with which he has stuck right at Palazzo Madama agreements on so-called guarantee fees, those presided over by a member of the minority. The goal – which appears to be achieved – was to assign the presidency of the Council for Elections and the immunity to a member of the League, Raffaele Vulpi (member of a party that was allied with PDL in the last government and now play as joke the part of opposition), and not at a member of “Movimento5Stelle” (the party of mr. Grillo) or a senator of “Sinistra Ecologia e Libertà, a small Left party that strong remain at the opposition. Therefore, the “real battle” will be at the end of the year.

And still therefore, always at the end of this year, it easy to image that the new government Letta probably will fall.

What will survive in Italy at start of next 2014?

 

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